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☆ Corporate earnings solid so far, despite threats from a slowing economy and sticky inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Valuations coming down So if earnings are up, why is the S & P off its highs? Today, a month later, 2024 earnings estimates are essentially the same but the multiple has declined to 20.8. The S & P 500 hit a low of 4,117 on Oct. 27 and only recovered when rates came down in early November. There are some big drags on earnings Some companies are seeing large declines in earnings estimates that are weighing on their sectors. When including this one-time item, the S & P 500 earnings growth rate for the first quarter declines to 5.6%, from 8.7%, LSEG has noted.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Christopher Suh, Stephen Squeri, Hess, Nick Raich, LSEG, Hal Lawton, Brian Niccol, CNBC's Kate Rogers, Horton, Paul Romanowski, Kimberly, Clark, Michael Hsu Organizations: Companies, Netflix, JPMorgan, GE Aerospace, Caterpillar, Microsoft, Merck, Ford, Waste Management, Royal, Consumer, American Express, Energy, Marathon Petroleum, Apache, Valero Energy, Oil, Occidental Petroleum, Devon Energy, ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil, Scout, Bristol Myers Squibb, Karuna Therapeutics, Boeing, Nvidia, Meta, AMD Locations: financials, industrials, Royal Caribbean, North America

The declines have come from just about every sector, with the exception of technology, which has seen its earnings estimates rise since October 1. A good example: IBM , which beat earnings expectations and highlighted an uptick in demand for artificial intelligence products and services. Outside of technology, earnings expectations are lower than three months ago, but are now rising again. "The market has been anticipating improving earnings expectations, and it's getting them. By that I do not mean that earnings estimates are rising, I mean they are not getting cut as much anymore," Raich added.

Persons: Nick Raich, it's, Raich, Sherwin, Williams, Heidi Petz, Kimberly, Clark, Nelson Urdaneta, that's, shipper J.B, Hunt, John Roberts, McCormick, Gamble, STMicroelectronics, Jim Fitterling, DuPont, hasn't, ASML, Andre Schulten, Baker Hughes Organizations: IBM, Treasury, Scout, Paint Stores, Insurance, Procter, Swift Transportation, Dow Inc, Texas, 3M, Gamble, FedEx, Humana, Adobe, Dupont Locations: Americas, China

☆ There's a lot of room to run up with AI-related companies, says Earnings Scout CEO Nick Raich
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's a lot of room to run up with AI-related companies, says Earnings Scout CEO Nick RaichNick Raich, The Earnings Scout co-founder and CEO, joins 'Squawk Box' to preview quarterly earnings results next week from companies like Netflix, United Airlines, Tesla, and more.

Persons: Nick Raich Nick Raich Organizations: Scout, Netflix, United Airlines, Tesla

Fourth-quarter earnings season is kicking off with a mix of good and bad news. Without those six stocks, the rest of the S & P is expected to see earnings fall 6%. There's a lot riding on earnings in 2024 For the S & P 500 to increase in 2024, earnings need to expand. But with the S & P 500 up over 20% last year, the forward earnings multiple is roughly 19.6, in the very pricey range. We need higher revenues The biggest risk to higher earnings is lower revenue growth.

Persons: Savita Subramanian, General Mills, Mobileye, Nick Raich, Adam Crisafulli, BofA's Subramanian, Deutsche, Binky, Sam Stovall Organizations: Pfizer, Merck, Moderna, Bank of America, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Nike, FedEx, General, Darden, Constellation Brands, Technology, Samsung Electronics, Vital, Deutsche Bank's Locations: Wayfair, Conagra

☆ These companies are slashing earnings estimates, but the market may have sniffed that out already
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The S & P 500 was expected to see an earnings gain of 11% for the fourth quarter on Oct. 1, and that expectation is now down to 7.8%. "We're seeing larger estimate cuts than average for S & P 500 companies through the first month of the fourth quarter," John Butters at FactSet said. Roughly 60 companies in the S & P 500 have disclosed declines of 10% or more in their earnings expectations in the month of October, according to LSEG. Earnings revisions: Notable declines in airlines and cruise lines Here are some of the S & P 500 companies that have seen earnings estimates decline 10% or more since the start of the fourth quarter, according to LSEG. The markets have sniffed this out: What's next The stock market, of course, does not wait for analysts to cut earnings estimates.

Persons: John Butters, FactSet, Nick Raich, Refiners Valero, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Alec Young Organizations: Boeing, . Airlines, Companies, Cruise Lines American Airlines, Cruise Line, Alaska Air Group, Southwest Airlines, Airlines, Delta, Entertainment Warner Bros Discovery, Paramount Global, Fox, MGM Resorts, Ford, Motors, Pfizer, Merck, Petroleum, Phillips, Seagate, Texas, Banks, Capital Markets, Blackstone, Intel, JETS, Energy, Pharmaceuticals

☆ Rising rates and commodity prices beginning to weigh on earnings, says Earnings Scout CEO
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRising rates and commodity prices beginning to weigh on earnings, says Earnings Scout CEONick Raich, The Earnings Scout co-founder and CEO, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss what the economy will look like by the end of the year, if big tech is the new defensive place to be, and much more.

Persons: Nick Raich Organizations: Scout

☆ Earnings season begins with markets lower than three months ago, but expectations are higher
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Q3 S & P 500 earnings: Trending higher July 1: $55.76 Today: $55.78 Source: LSEG Q4 S & P 500 earnings: Trending higher July 1: $57.58 Today: $58.14 Source: LSEG The fact that the third quarter estimate of $55.78 is slightly below the third quarter of last year ($56.02) is not important; what matters is the trend in earnings. For Q3 2023, 76 S & P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 42 S & P 500 companies have issued positive EPS guidance, according to John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet. "The earnings outlook for the S & P 500 for the third quarter is less negative relative to recent quarters," Butters told clients. "The percentage of companies issuing negative earnings guidance is equal to the 10-year average." Here's what stands out: The average earnings growth was 10.6%; the average revenue growth was 4.2%.

Persons: —, John Butters, Butters, Nick Raich, It's, Chadha Organizations: FactSet, Companies, FedEx, Oracle, Darden, Costco, Pepsi, PepsiCo, Frito, Barclays, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank Locations: America, AutoZone, United States, Mexico, Russia, Canada, China, South Africa, Japan, abate

☆ Stock market bulls are hopeful that earnings will be a welcome distraction
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

After September lived up to its reputation as the worst month of the year, bulls are hopeful earnings will prove a welcome distraction for a stock market mired in weak seasonal trends and rising interest rates. "Net net, the earnings estimates for these early reporters are going up, and that is a positive sign for earnings season," Earnings Scout founder and CEO Nick Raich from told me. Valuations are coming down but are still high The forward multiple for the S & P 500 (Q4 2023, and Q1-Q3 for 2024) is 17.9. For example, industrials have seen a significant decline in earnings estimates due to very large estimate declines for Boeing. Bulls hopeful earnings will prove a welcome distraction The expectations for rising earnings has many hopeful that it will help get stocks out of their recent rut due to rising interest rates.

Persons: Nick Raich, John Butters, Nicholas Colas, Raich Organizations: JPMorgan, FedEx, Oracle, Darden, Costco, Pepsi, General Motors, Ford, Netflix, NVIDIA, Apple, Intel, Boeing, Southwest Airlines, American Airlines, United Parcel Service Locations: AutoZone, Horton

Roughly 150 S & P 500 companies are slated to report next week, including Microsoft , Coca-Cola and Boeing . Tech giant Meta Platforms , slated to report Wednesday, has had its earnings estimates hiked by more than 21% over the past three months. The average earnings per share estimate for the automotive giant is up 22% in the past three months. The company is slated to report earnings Tuesday before the bell. Analysts on average have raised their earnings estimates by 38% over both the past three and six months.

Persons: Nick Raich, Doug Anmuth, General Motors, Tesla, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Microsoft, Boeing, Investors, CNBC Pro, Tech, Meta, Facebook, JPMorgan, General, GM, Alaska Air, Royal Locations: America, Royal Caribbean

☆ Why better-than-expected earnings this reporting season may have trouble boosting market further
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

They are very high, and that may prevent stock prices from moving forward even if earnings reports exceed estimates. The earnings "apocalypse" — the collapse in earnings that many feared would be coming along with a serious recession in 2023 — has not materialized. What this means is that the price of the S & P 500 has gone up to due multiple expansion, not because earnings estimates have been rising dramatically. Bottom line: The S & P 500 at 4,400 with forward earnings at $230 today (19.2 multiple) is not nearly as appealing as the S & P was in January, when it was at 3,800 with forward earnings at $220 (17.2 multiple). It's the easiest path to get the overall market higher.

Persons: Savita Subramanian, —, Chris Harvey, Wells, Nick Raich, Nicholas Colas, DataTrek Organizations: BofA Securities, Delta, Microsoft, Nvidia, P Technology, Big Tech Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ Forecasts show U.S. earnings decline in second quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Analysts expect earnings for S&P 500 companies to fall 5.6% in the second quarter from a year ago, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. Fourth-quarter 2022 earnings for S&P 500 companies declined 3.2%, so a first-quarter profit fall would have been a second straight quarterly decline, which some strategists call an earnings recession. Package delivery firm FedEx (FDX.N) this week posted disappointing quarterly earnings and said waning global demand is pressuring its profit margins. "S&P 500 EPS estimates and stock prices will need to reset lower." The S&P 500 (.SPX) is down about 1% this week, but remains up more than 13% for the year to date.

Persons: COVID, Jerome Powell, Oliver Pursche, Olive, Morgan Stanley, Nick Raich, Caroline Valetkevitch, Alden Bentley, Nick Zieminski Organizations: YORK, Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc, Reserve, Bank of England, Wealthspire Advisors, Walmart Inc, FedEx, Olive Garden, Darden, Nike, Thomson Locations: Refinitiv, Washington, U.S, Westport , Connecticut

☆ Earnings playbook: The second half of the season kicks off with Apple, Ford and a pharma giant
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-30 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

What history shows: Data from Bespoke Investment Group shows Pfizer beats earnings expectations 87% of the time. Ford Motor is set to report earnings after the close, followed by a call at 5 p.m. What history shows: Ford earnings outperform earnings expectations 69% of the time, per Bespoke. AMD is set to report earnings after the close, with management scheduled to hold a conference call at 5 p.m. Friday Warner Bros Discovery is set to report earnings before the open, followed by a conference call at 8 a.m.

☆ Earnings at the half point of the season: no sign yet of any collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

At the halfway point for earnings, bulls are delighted earnings are coming in stronger than expected and expectations for the second half of the year remain high. With 260 companies in the S & P 500 reporting, 79% are beating expectations, according to Earnings Scout. That is an earnings recession, but the declines — all in the low single digits — are not causing a lot of consternation. Now, on the heels of positive earnings reports, many tech stocks are seeing second quarter earnings estimates rising in the past few weeks, including Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet. The second half of 2023: Record earnings, really?

☆ 'The numbers need to come down,' bears say ahead of the next round of earnings reports
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Earnings season does not start until April 14, when the big banks begin reporting, but already the bears are saying expectations are too high. One of the issues that drives bears crazy is the refusal of analysts to slash earnings estimates for 2023. This is exactly what happened during the big selloff that culminated in the drop in the S & P in October of last year. These estimates from analysts are known as "bottoms-up" estimates, because the estimates come from an analysis of individual companies. I'll get into this more as we get closer to earnings season, but here's an example from Wolfe Research's Chris Senyek.

☆ Earnings playbook: Apple and Google-parent Alphabet lead the busiest week of reports
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-29 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +14 min

Tuesday General Motors is set to report earnings before the bell, followed by a conference call at 8:30 a.m. What history shows: Data from Bespoke Investment Group shows GM beats earnings expectations 85% of the time. McDonald's is set to report earnings before the bell, with company leadership set to hold a call 8:30 a.m. What history shows: Qualcomm has either beaten or matched analysts' earnings expectations in the last 32 quarters, according to FactSet. Alphabet is set to report earnings after the close, followed by a conference call at 4:30 p.m.

☆ Buckle up. These stocks are set for a wild ride on earnings, according to Bank of America
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Bank of America looked at stocks with the highest implied volatility going into their earnings releases. Here are some stocks that, according to data from Bank of America, could see some large fluctuations. One stock that made the list is Tractor Supply , with Bank of America noting the options market is signaling at potential move of 4.7% in either direction after earnings. Mastercard 's shares could also move sharply on the back of earnings, with the options market pricing in a 3.8% swing in either direction. Bank of America noted the stock's implied volatility reflects a swing of 7.6% when the company releases its quarterly report Thursday after the bell.

☆ Earnings playbook: What investors can expect out of Tesla, Microsoft and Boeing
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-22 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +11 min

Tuesday Johnson & Johnson is set to report earnings before the bell, followed by a conference call at 8:30 a.m. What history shows: Johnson & Johnson has beaten earnings expectations 95% of the time, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Wednesday Boeing is set to report earnings before the bell, followed by a call with analysts at 10:30 a.m. What history shows: FactSet data shows Boeing has posted a greater-than-expected loss in the last five quarters. Tesla is set to report earnings after the close, with management set to hold a call at 5:30 p.m.

☆ Trader Talk: Earnings are mostly about hopes for the second half
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Earnings: It's all about the second half of 2023. Wall Street analysts agree, but they are expecting a much rosier outcome in the second half of the year. "The big question is, are the worst of the earnings estimate cuts for 2023 behind us?," Nick Raich from Earnings Scout told me. Big cap tech earnings: laggards (Q4 year over year earnings ests.) Analysts embrace 'tough first half, better second half' scenario All the hopes for earnings growth are now pinned on the back half of the year, when the Fed is expected to have halted its rate hike frenzy.

☆ Is the bottom in for the bear? Market valuation measures suggest not
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The most recent market bottom occurred on October 12th, when the S & P 500 closed at 3,577. At the time, analysts were quite optimistic about 2023 earnings, expecting them to come in at $239, up almost 8% from the 2022 earnings estimates. That translates into a forward multiple (P/E ratio) of 15 times 2023 earnings. Other strategists have also noticed that the S & P 500, despite a 20% drop in 2022, is still trading at a rich valuation. Instead of $237, estimates are now $229, and the multiple is now 16.7 times forward earnings.

☆ Three stocks this week will give us a better idea about the overall earnings outlook
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

While none of these have been a disaster, only one company — Autozone — has seen first quarter estimates rise after its report, according to Nick Raich at The Earnings Scout. And that is the problem: Earnings estimates have been trending down for weeks. Like all multinational retailers, analysts began slashing Nike's second half 2022 earnings estimates and 2023 estimates this summer. Single-stock ETFs Nike's earnings out after the bell today will focus some attention on a curious phenomenon from 2022: single stock ETFs. Like most of the other single stock ETFs, this has failed to attract any significant assets.

☆ With the Fed out of the way, this is what could move the markets into year-end
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

With the Federal Reserve out of the way, and major economic news light (only the PCE on this Friday), traders are bracing for a wave of earnings reductions from the analysts community ahead of fourth quarter earnings. "Fed induced recession fears are to blame for December's pullback," Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said in a note to clients. Analyst earnings expectations for the fourth quarter have been in negative territory for several weeks, and now expectations for the first quarter of 2023 are also on the verge of going negative. It's very early, but early reporters have not been disastrous. So, early February 2023 is when the worst of the cuts may occur," wrote Raich.

☆ Fear is mounting that slumping retail earnings may fall lower still
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Another leg down for retail earnings? But it doesn't negate the main story for retailers this year: earnings estimates have been coming down hard since the summer. Beginning in June and July, analysts began aggressively cutting retail earnings estimates for the all-important holiday season. The assumption: the Fed's aggressive rate hikes would, by the end of the year, significantly slow consumer spending and likely start a recession. Indeed, yesterday's retail sales numbers were strong, and other recent reports by Mastercard also indicate the consumer is strong.

☆ Why this earnings season may not be as bad as people think
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Carmen Reinicke | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

It's just a few weeks into third-quarter earnings season, but so far, it hasn't been nearly as bad as Wall Street feared. Through Thursday morning, 75% of S & P 500 companies that had reported earnings had exceeded expectations, according to data from The Earnings Scout. He pointed to Procter & Gamble 's Wednesday report , which topped analyst estimates for earnings and revenue as higher prices offset lower sales volumes. Going into the season, expectations were that earnings would be cut 15% to 20% to the downside, to reflect economic weakness, said Overby. Why good news might again be bad news Earnings beats are good for investors as they generally send stock prices higher.

☆ Early indications point to a very disappointing earnings reporting season ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-10 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Leading into earnings season, analysts typically do very little as they await company guidance. However, this earnings season is shaping up differently. Point 1: Earnings are expected to be up for the third quarter, but the extraordinary profits of oil companies are distorting the results. Q3 earnings Ests: S & P 500 All sectors: up 4.1% Excluding Energy: down 2.6% Source: Refinitiv Point 2: The companies that have reported early have generally been disappointing. Traders are focused on fourth quarter estimates, where four sectors are already negative, and technology is just barely positive.

☆ Wall Street says companies' lousy earnings outlooks might be intensifying
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-03 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

We are entering third quarter earnings season, and the level of cluelessness has never been so high. Wells Fargo's Chris Harvey called the start of third quarter earnings season "A Dud." With the S & P 500 closing at 3,585 for the third quarter, the forward earnings multiple now stands at 15 times 2023 earnings, according to S & P Global. S & P 500: Forward Earnings Multiple 2023: 15.0 5-year average: 21.7 Avg. More importantly, earnings estimates for the "growth" part of the S & P have been getting cut for both the third and fourth quarters.

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